USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - September 11, 2003
WASDE-402 September 11, 2003
WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are
unchanged from last month as a 10-million-bushel reduction in
imports is offset by reduced food use. The lower projected food
use for 2003/04 is in line with a downward adjustment in use for
2002/03 linked to recently released mill grind estimates by the
Bureau of Census. The projected price range is down 20 cents on
the top end of the range to $3.10 to $3.50 per bushel because of
lower-than-expected prices during the first quarter of the marketing
year.
Projected 2003/04 global wheat production and stocks are down
from last month. Projected production is down 2 million tons in the
EU and 1 million tons each in Canada and Argentina. These
reductions are partially offset by larger crops for Australia and
several other countries. The smaller crops in Canada and the EU
reduce domestic use, stocks, and exports, while all of the
production drop in Argentina is reflected in smaller exports.
Projected EU and Argentine exports are reduced 1 million tons
each and Canadian exports are lowered 0.5 million tons. Projected
exports are up 1 million tons for Australia and up 0.5 million tons for
China. Projected global imports are down from last month, largely
due to reductions for China and Iran.
COARSE GRAINS: This month's outlook for 2003/04 U.S. feed
grains is for lower crops, reduced use, and slightly smaller stocks.
Forecast 2003 corn production is down 120 million bushels from
last month. With no change in use, all of the decline in production
is reflected in lower ending stocks. A smaller sorghum crop is
reflected in reduced domestic use, exports, and ending stocks of
sorghum. The projected price range for corn is up 10 cents on
each end to $2.10 to $2.50 per bushel.
Global 2003/04 coarse grain supply and use projections are down
from last month, largely due to smaller U.S., EU, and Eastern
Europe crops. The smaller EU coarse grain crops result in reduced
domestic use, stocks, and exports (barley and oats) but larger
projected imports of corn. The smaller Eastern Europe crops result
in larger imports, but smaller domestic use and exports. Reduced
corn exports by Eastern Europe are more than offset by increased
Brazilian exports. Projected global coarse grain imports are little
changed from last month as higher corn imports by the EU and
Japan are largely offset by reductions for Algeria and Chile. The
United States, EU, and China account for most of the drop in
projected global coarse grain ending stocks. China's lower
2003/04 ending stocks reflect higher corn exports and lower stocks
for 2002/03.
RICE: U.S. rice production for 2003/04 is forecast at 198.2 million
cwt, 3 million cwt higher than last month. The U.S. 2003/04
average yield is forecast at a record 6,655 pounds per acre, up 78
pounds per acre from last month. Long-grain production is forecast
at 147.2 million cwt, up 2.5 million cwt from last month and
combined medium and short-grain production is forecast at 50.9
million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from the August forecast. Total use
is raised nearly 2 million cwt to 215.1 million cwt. An increase in
exports to 91 million cwt more than offsets lower domestic and
residual use. Ending stocks are projected at 25.4 million cwt, 7.8
million cwt above last month, but down 1.4 million cwt from the
revised 2002/03 forecast. The season-average farm price is
projected at $6.25 to $6.75 per cwt, down 25 cents per cwt on both
ends from a month earlier but up from a revised $4.22 per cwt for
2002/03.
The Rice Stocks report released on August 28 estimated August 1
U.S. rice stocks at 26.8 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), 6.6
million cwt above last month's forecast, but 12.2 million cwt below
2001/02. NASS estimates rough rice stocks at 20.1 million cwt and
milled rice stocks at 4.6 million cwt. Domestic and residual use for
2002/03 is reduced from last month because of the higher stocks
estimate. U.S. rice exports for 2002/03 are projected at a record
123 million cwt, 2 million cwt above last month. Rough rice exports
are lowered 1 million cwt to 43 million cwt while milled exports
(rough-equivalent basis) are raised 3 million cwt to 80 million cwt.
Larger exports are based on Census data through June and July
export sales data.
Global 2003/04 rice production, trade, and stocks are lowered
slightly from last month while consumption is raised slightly.
Production estimates are lowered for Japan, South Korea, North
Korea, and some countries in Africa (including Liberia and
Tanzania) which are partially offset by increased production in the
United States, Cambodia, Afghanistan, and some African countries
(including Sierra Leone and Madagascar). World ending stocks for
2003/04 are projected at 84.8 million tons, 0.3 million tons below
last month.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed stocks for 2003/04 are reduced sharply
from last month as oilseed yields and production decline. U.S.
oilseed production is projected at 81.5 million tons, down 6.0 million
tons from last month. Soybean production is down 219 million
bushels from last month to 2.6 billion bushels, based on a yield of
36.4 bushels per acre. This would be the smallest crop since
1996/97. Yield declines were mainly in the western Corn Belt
States and the upper Midwest. Other oilseed production changes
this month include a modest increase in peanut production and a
reduction in cottonseed production. Soybean exports are reduced
60 million bushels to 940 million bushels. Soybean crush is also
reduced as higher prices reduce domestic use and prospective
exports for both soybean meal and oil. Soybean ending stocks for
2003/04 are projected at 135 million bushels, the lowest since
1996/97.
U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2003/04 are projected at
$5.25 to $6.15 per bushel compared with $4.55 to $5.55 per bushel
last month. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $170 to $200 per
short ton, compared with $155 to $180 last month. Soybean oil
prices are projected at 20 to 23 cents per pound, up 2 cent on both
ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2003/04 is projected at 345.7 million
tons, down 6.0 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed
production is forecast at 264.2 million tons, unchanged from last
month, due to offsetting changes for several crops. Foreign
sunflowerseed production is raised as increases for Russia,
Ukraine, and Eastern Europe more than offset lower production in
the EU. Cottonseed production is reduced for Pakistan and China.
Other changes this month include lower rapeseed production for
Australia and increased peanut and soybean production for India.
With 2003/04 global oilseed use forecast down slightly, world
stocks are projected to decline 4.3 million tons to 38.1 million tons,
slightly below the level for 2002/03.
SUGAR: The projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2003/04 is
increased slightly from last month. Higher beginning stocks and
imports more than offset the decreased production. Imports
include the tariff rate quota (TRQ) announced on August 13 and
shortfall of 50,000 short tons, raw value. Processors' production
projections, compiled by the Farm Service Agency, are down
73,000 tons from last month. On the use side, deliveries for
domestic food and beverage use are lowered 150,000 tons, in line
with a reduction for 2002/03. The total stocks-to-use ratio is 20.0
percent, compared with 18.2 percent last month.
For 2002/03, small changes in total supply are more than offset by
reduced deliveries for domestic food and beverage use.
Processors' production projections are lowered slightly. Imports
under the TRQ are decreased 25,000 tons, reflecting higher
shortfall. Imports for re-export are increased 40,000 tons, while
exports and deliveries to manufacturers for re-export in sugar-
containing products are increased 15,000 tons. Reported
deliveries for domestic food and beverage use are reduced
100,000 tons, based on the slower-than-expected pace to date.
The total stocks-to-use ratio is 17.5 percent, compared with 16.4
percent last month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total red meat and poultry
production forecasts for both 2003 and 2004 are raised from last
month. Forecast beef production in 2003 is raised as tighter total
beef supplies and strong demand have boosted prices and are
encouraging producers to market cattle early. However, beef
production declines in 2004 are expected to be steeper than
forecast last month as cattle inventories continue to decline. Pork
production forecasts for both 2003 and 2004 are raised as higher
expected levels of imported hogs boost slaughter through the early
part of 2004. Broiler production is forecast higher in 2003 as July
production was higher than expected. Broiler prices in the second
half of 2003 are forecast higher than last month, which are
expected to stimulate broiler production in 2004. As a result,
broiler production forecasts for 2004 are also raised from last
month. Turkey production forecasts for 2003 and 2004 are raised
slightly.
Tighter supplies of Choice beef, restrictions on Canadian beef and
cattle, and continued strong beef demand have resulted in dramatic
increases in cattle prices. As a result, cattle prices are forecast
raised for 2003 and 2004. However, price gains are expected to
moderate as Canadian beef re-enters the U.S. market. Hog price
forecasts are raised slightly in 2003 despite larger forecast supplies
of pork because of high cattle and beef prices. Broiler price
forecasts for 2003 are also raised from last month as spillover from
the beef sector is expected to help support prices. However,
increased turkey production is expected to pressure second-half
2003 turkey prices. The egg price forecast is increased for 2003
and 2004 due to limited year-over-year production gains.
The beef import forecast for 2003 is reduced reflecting lower-than-
expected imports from Canada. Beef exports are raised for 2003
and 2004 as foreign demand of U.S. beef is expected to increase.
U.S. pork import forecasts are raised from last month due to
continued expansion of Canadian pork production. Poultry trade
forecasts are little changed from last month.
Dairy production is raised slightly as revisions to June milk
production indicate a slightly faster rate of increase in milk yields
than assumed last month. Net removals of nonfat dry milk in
2002/03 are adjusted to reflect the expected impacts of the swaps
of nonfat dry milk for cheese and pudding. Continued strength in
near-term cheese prices has resulted in an increase in the forecast
2002/03 Class III price, but both 2002/03 and 2003/04 Class IV
prices are lowered on expectations of more rapidly weakening
butter prices. The all milk price forecasts are unchanged from last
month.
COTTON: U.S. 2003/04 projections include lower beginning stocks
and production and higher exports compared with last month.
Beginning stocks are reduced based on preliminary data from the
Census Bureau. A decrease of 165,000 bales in production
reflects lower forecasts for the Southeast and Southwest, partially
offset by an increase for the Delta states. Domestic mill use is
unchanged. Exports are raised to a record 12.0 million bales, as
reduced foreign crop prospects, especially in China, are raising
world import demand. Ending stocks are reduced 500,000 bales to
3.8 million bales, 20.4 percent of total use.
World 2003/04 cotton supplies and stocks are reduced sharply
from last month; consumption is reduced slightly. Lower beginning
stocks are the result of adjustments in the 2002/03 balance sheets
for several countries, including Turkey, Taiwan, the United States,
and Uzbekistan. Production is reduced 1.5 million bales in China,
due to the effects of severe wet weather in eastern China.
Production also is reduced in Argentina, Pakistan, and Paraguay.
A sharp increase in China's imports is boosting world trade; the
China increase is partially offset by small reductions in imports for
several other countries. World stocks are reduced 6 percent from
last month to 32.2 million bales, the smallest since 1994/95.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural
Outlook Board,
Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was
prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.
Committee members are listed on page 35.
APPROVED:
JOSEPH J. JEN
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on
October 10, 2003.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following
dates in 2003: Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11.
Mark Your Calendar for Outlook Forum 2004
USDA will hold the 80th Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19-
20, 2004, in Arlington, Virginia. Details will be announced in the
fall. To receive detailed information, send your address to
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USDA/WAOB, Mail Stop 3812 South Building, Washington, D.C.
20250-3812.
For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447.
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WASDE-402-6
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Total grains 3/ :
2001/02 : 1,872.00 2,408.60 238.60 1,899.35 509.25
2002/03 (Est.) : 1,812.81 2,322.06 236.37 1,909.08 412.98
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 1,830.20 2,242.83 222.74 1,915.42 327.41
September : 1,817.99 2,230.98 221.01 1,910.76 320.22
Wheat :
2001/02 : 581.07 781.72 108.08 584.36 197.36
2002/03 (Est.) : 564.11 761.48 104.27 597.29 164.19
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 549.35 713.42 97.91 582.87 130.55
September : 547.04 711.23 97.41 582.22 129.01
Coarse grains 4/ :
2001/02 : 892.33 1,080.41 103.50 904.27 176.14
2002/03 (Est.) : 868.78 1,044.93 104.57 902.77 142.16
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 890.27 1,032.33 99.20 920.58 111.74
September : 880.50 1,022.65 98.09 916.24 106.41
Rice, milled :
2001/02 : 398.60 546.47 27.03 410.72 135.74
2002/03 (Est.) : 379.91 515.65 27.54 409.02 106.64
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 390.58 497.07 25.63 411.96 85.11
September : 390.46 497.09 25.50 412.30 84.79
:
: United States
Total grains 3/ :
2001/02 : 321.86 405.20 84.33 253.45 67.42
2002/03 (Est.) : 295.54 368.12 72.96 252.04 43.12
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 344.06 392.57 82.93 257.53 52.10
September : 340.13 388.57 82.55 256.94 49.09
Wheat :
2001/02 : 53.26 80.04 26.23 32.66 21.15
2002/03 (Est.) : 43.99 67.25 23.25 30.62 13.38
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 62.37 78.20 28.58 32.11 17.51
September : 62.37 77.93 28.58 31.84 17.51
Coarse grains 4/ :
2001/02 : 261.86 317.12 55.15 216.92 45.05
2002/03 (Est.) : 245.04 292.67 45.92 217.84 28.91
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 275.58 307.14 51.64 221.47 34.04
September : 271.56 303.12 51.13 221.22 30.78
Rice, milled :
2001/02 : 6.74 8.04 2.96 3.87 1.22
2002/03 (Est.) : 6.51 8.20 3.79 3.58 0.83
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 6.11 7.22 2.72 3.95 0.55
September : 6.20 7.52 2.85 3.88 0.80
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,
millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).
WASDE-402-7
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: Foreign 3/
Total grains 4/ :
2001/02 : 1,550.14 2,003.40 154.27 1,645.90 441.83
2002/03 (Est.) : 1,517.26 1,953.94 163.41 1,657.04 369.86
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 1,486.14 1,850.26 139.81 1,657.88 275.31
September : 1,477.86 1,842.41 138.46 1,653.82 271.13
Wheat :
2001/02 : 527.81 701.69 81.85 551.70 176.21
2002/03 (Est.) : 520.12 694.23 81.02 566.67 150.81
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 486.98 635.22 69.34 550.76 113.04
September : 484.67 633.30 68.84 550.38 111.50
Coarse grains 5/ :
2001/02 : 630.47 763.29 48.36 687.35 131.09
2002/03 (Est.) : 623.74 752.26 58.65 684.93 113.24
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 614.68 725.19 47.57 699.11 77.71
September : 608.93 719.53 46.97 695.02 75.64
Rice, milled :
2001/02 : 391.86 538.42 24.07 406.86 134.53
2002/03 (Est.) : 373.40 507.45 23.74 405.44 105.81
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 384.48 489.85 22.91 408.01 84.56
September : 384.25 489.57 22.66 408.42 84.00
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains
and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed
grains.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2001/02 : 98.46 141.11 29.05 94.38 47.19
2002/03 (Est.) : 87.90 135.08 30.63 97.68 37.26
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 95.38 132.99 30.01 99.16 34.29
September : 93.36 130.62 30.42 98.86 32.22
: United States
2001/02 : 20.30 26.32 11.00 7.70 7.45
2002/03 (Est.) : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.40
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 17.10 22.65 11.80 6.60 4.30
September : 16.94 22.39 12.00 6.60 3.80
: Foreign 3/
2001/02 : 78.16 114.79 18.05 86.69 39.74
2002/03 (Est.) : 70.69 110.36 18.73 90.42 31.86
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 78.27 110.34 18.21 92.56 29.99
September : 76.42 108.23 18.42 92.26 28.42
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-402-8
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Oilseeds :
2001/02 : 324.44 360.08 64.06 264.57 36.81
2002/03 (Est.) : 327.80 364.61 72.91 269.82 38.32
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 351.68 390.35 74.88 287.72 42.35
September : 345.71 384.03 75.66 286.60 38.05
Oilmeals :
2001/02 : 183.05 188.42 53.75 183.85 5.75
2002/03 (Est.) : 187.68 193.44 55.85 188.58 5.66
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 199.32 205.31 60.12 198.41 6.37
September : 198.24 203.91 59.87 198.22 5.74
Vegetable Oils :
2001/02 : 92.38 100.97 33.57 92.38 7.98
2002/03 (Est.) : 94.47 102.45 35.79 94.80 6.79
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 100.05 106.88 36.74 98.92 7.18
September : 100.29 107.08 36.76 99.22 7.15
:
: United States
Oilseeds :
2001/02 : 89.83 98.30 29.97 50.62 6.87
2002/03 (Est.) : 83.25 90.65 29.31 47.46 4.67
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 87.50 93.04 28.12 48.24 7.02
September : 81.48 86.80 26.47 46.33 4.65
Oilmeals :
2001/02 : 38.89 40.34 7.06 33.00 0.29
2002/03 (Est.) : 36.48 37.77 5.78 31.70 0.29
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 37.22 38.68 5.75 32.66 0.27
September : 35.75 37.31 5.03 32.02 0.27
Vegetable Oils :
2001/02 : 9.64 12.99 1.55 10.14 1.31
2002/03 (Est.) : 9.18 12.12 1.24 9.97 0.91
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 9.32 11.91 0.78 10.22 0.91
September : 8.95 11.63 0.66 10.16 0.81
:
: Foreign 3/
Oilseeds :
2001/02 : 234.61 261.78 34.09 213.95 29.94
2002/03 (Est.) : 244.55 273.95 43.59 222.36 33.65
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 264.19 297.31 46.76 239.48 35.33
September : 264.23 297.23 49.19 240.27 33.40
Oilmeals :
2001/02 : 144.16 148.08 46.69 150.85 5.46
2002/03 (Est.) : 151.20 155.67 50.07 156.89 5.37
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 162.10 166.63 54.37 165.75 6.10
September : 162.50 166.60 54.85 166.21 5.46
Vegetable Oils :
2001/02 : 82.73 87.98 32.02 82.24 6.68
2002/03 (Est.) : 85.29 90.33 34.55 84.83 5.88
2003/04 (Proj.) :
August : 90.74 94.97 35.96 88.70 6.27
September : 91.34 95.45 36.10 89.06 6.34
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an
Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to
world minus United States.
WASDE-402-9
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :==============================
: : Est. : August September
===============================================================================
Area : Million acres
Planted : 59.6 60.4 60.9 60.9
Harvested : 48.6 45.8 52.7 52.7
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 40.2 35.3 43.5 43.5
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 876 777 492 492
Production : 1,957 1,616 2,292 2,292
Imports : 108 77 90 80
Supply, total : 2,941 2,471 2,874 2,864
Food : 926 918 920 910
Seed : 84 83 85 85
Feed and residual : 190 125 175 175
Domestic, total : 1,200 1,125 1,180 1,170
Exports : 964 854 1,050 1,050
Use, total : 2,164 1,979 2,230 2,220
Ending stocks : 777 492 644 644
CCC inventory : 99 66 60
Free stocks : 678 426 584
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.78 3.56 3.10- 3.70 3.10- 3.50
===============================================================================
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use
===============================================================================
Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : :
June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total
===============================================================================
2002/03 (estimated) : Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777
Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616
Supply, total 3/ : 980 610 416 322 142 2,471
Domestic use : 484 207 257 100 77 1,125
Exports : 307 258 105 147 37 854
Use, total : 791 465 361 247 115 1,979
Ending stocks, total : 189 145 55 75 28 492
:
2003/04 (projected) :
Beginning stocks : 189 145 55 75 28 492
Production : 1,093 460 365 286 87 2,292
Supply, total 3/ : 1,290 638 420 373 142 2,864
Domestic use : 486 232 261 106 85 1,170
Exports : 460 255 100 200 35 1,050
Use, total : 946 486 361 306 120 2,220
Ending stocks, total :
September : 344 151 59 67 22 644
August : 339 153 59 67 25 644
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.
2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes
imports.
WASDE-402-10
U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :==============================
: : Est. : August September
===============================================================================
FEED GRAINS :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 95.4 98.7 99.0 99.0
Harvested : 83.6 82.8 87.4 87.1
Yield per harvested : Metric tons
acre : 3.13 2.96 3.15 3.12
: Million metric tons
Beginning stocks : 52.7 45.0 28.9 28.9
Production : 261.7 244.9 275.4 271.3
Imports : 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5
Supply, total : 316.8 292.3 306.8 302.8
Feed and residual : 158.5 152.9 152.2 151.9
Food, seed & industrial : 58.1 64.6 69.0 69.0
Domestic, total : 216.6 217.5 221.2 220.9
Exports : 55.1 45.9 51.6 51.1
Use, total : 271.7 263.4 272.8 272.0
Ending stocks, total : 45.0 28.9 34.0 30.8
CCC inventory : 0.2 0.1 0.1
Free stocks : 44.9 28.8 30.7
Outstanding loans : 5.6 7.1 7.8
:
CORN :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 75.8 79.1 79.1 79.1
Harvested : 68.8 69.3 71.9 71.8
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 138.2 130.0 139.9 138.5
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 1,899 1,596 1,009 1,009
Production : 9,507 9,008 10,064 9,944
Imports : 10 15 10 10
Supply, total : 11,416 10,619 11,084 10,964
Feed and residual : 5,861 5,700 5,625 5,625
Food, seed & industrial : 2,054 2,310 2,475 2,475
Domestic, total : 7,915 8,010 8,100 8,100
Exports : 1,905 1,600 1,800 1,800
Use, total : 9,820 9,610 9,900 9,900
Ending stocks, total : 1,596 1,009 1,184 1,064
CCC inventory : 6 5 3
Free stocks : 1,590 1,004 1,061
Outstanding loans : 213 277 300
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.97 2.30 2.00- 2.40 2.10- 2.50
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/
Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.
WASDE-402-11
U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :==============================
: : Est. : August September
===============================================================================
: Million bushels
SORGHUM :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.3 9.6 9.8 9.8
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.6 7.3 8.2 8.0
Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 50.7 54.4 51.0
Beginning stocks : 42 61 41 41
Production : 515 370 448 410
Imports : 0 0 0 0
Supply, total : 556 431 489 451
Feed and residual : 208 165 185 175
Food, seed & industrial : 45 45 50 50
Total domestic : 253 210 235 225
Exports : 242 180 210 190
Use, total : 495 390 445 415
Ending stocks, total : 61 41 44 36
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 2.30 2.00- 2.40 2.10- 2.50
:
BARLEY :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.5
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.3 4.1 4.9 4.9
Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.2 54.9 57.5 57.5
Beginning stocks : 106 93 69 69
Production : 249 227 281 281
Imports : 24 18 30 30
Supply, total : 380 338 381 381
Feed and residual : 88 66 100 100
Food, seed & industrial : 172 173 173 173
Total domestic : 260 239 273 273
Exports : 26 30 25 25
Use, total : 287 269 298 298
Ending stocks, total : 93 69 83 83
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.22 2.72 2.20- 2.60 2.35- 2.65
:
OATS :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.4 5.0 4.7 4.7
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3
Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.4 56.8 64.9 64.9
Beginning stocks : 73 63 50 50
Production : 117 119 151 151
Imports : 96 95 95 95
Supply, total : 286 277 296 296
Feed and residual : 148 153 150 150
Food, seed & industrial : 72 72 73 73
Total domestic : 220 225 223 223
Exports : 3 3 2 2
Use, total : 223 228 225 225
Ending stocks, total : 63 50 71 71
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.59 1.81 1.15- 1.55 1.25- 1.55
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers.
WASDE-402-12
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :==============================
: : Est. : August September
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 3.33 3.24 2.99 3.01
Harvested : 3.31 3.21 2.97 2.98
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 6,496 6,578 6,577 6,655
:
: Million hundredweight
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 28.5 39.0 20.2 26.8
Production : 215.3 211.0 195.1 198.2
Imports : 13.2 15.0 15.5 15.5
Supply, total : 256.9 264.9 230.9 240.5
Domestic & residual 3/ : 123.5 115.1 126.3 124.1
Exports, total 4/ : 94.5 123.0 87.0 91.0
Rough : 32.2 43.0 37.0 37.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 62.4 80.0 50.0 54.0
Use, total : 218.0 238.1 213.3 215.1
Ending stocks : 39.0 26.8 17.6 25.4
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.0 68.0 69.0 69.0
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.25 4.22 6.50- 7.00 6.25- 6.75
:
LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.70 2.51
Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,213 6,260
Beginning stocks : 11.6 26.8 10.8 15.7
Production : 167.6 157.2 144.7 147.2
Supply, total 7/ : 188.3 194.3 166.0 173.4
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.9 80.6 89.0 87.8
Exports 8/ : 73.7 98.0 68.0 71.0
Use, total : 161.6 178.6 157.0 158.8
Ending stocks : 26.8 15.7 9.0 14.6
:
:
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.62 0.70
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,733 7,729
Beginning stocks : 15.6 10.7 7.9 9.3
Production : 47.7 53.7 50.4 50.9
Supply, total 7/ : 67.1 68.8 63.3 65.2
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 35.6 34.5 37.2 36.2
Exports 8/ : 20.8 25.0 19.0 20.0
Use, total : 56.4 59.5 56.2 56.2
Ending stocks : 10.7 9.3 7.1 9.0
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August
1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type
undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.
cwt): 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8. 3/ Residual includes unreported
use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total
rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending
stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports
are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e.,
the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the
quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are
estimated.
WASDE-402-13
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :===============================
: : Est. : August September
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS: : Million acres
Area :
Planted : 74.1 73.8 73.7 73.7
Harvested : 73.0 72.2 72.6 72.6
:
: Bushels
Yield per harvested :
acre : 39.6 37.8 39.4 36.4
:
: Million bushels
:
Beginning stocks : 248 208 145 140
Production : 2,891 2,730 2,862 2,643
Imports : 2 4 4 4
Supply, total : 3,141 2,942 3,011 2,787
Crushings : 1,700 1,615 1,625 1,555
Exports : 1,064 1,040 1,000 940
Seed : 90 90 89 91
Residual : 80 57 _3/ 77 65
Use, total : 2,933 2,802 2,791 2,652
Ending stocks : 208 140 220 135
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.38 5.50 4.55- 5.55 5.25 - 6.15
:
:
: Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL: :
Beginning stocks : 2,767 2,358 1,504 1,558
Production : 18,898 18,395 18,315 17,525
Imports : 46 55 75 85
Supply, total : 21,711 20,808 19,894 19,168
Domestic : 16,833 17,000 17,250 17,000
Exports : 2,519 2,250 1,100 850
Use, total : 19,353 19,250 18,350 17,850
Ending stocks : 2,358 1,558 1,544 1,318
Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 16.46 21.75 18.00- 20.00-
: 21.00 23.00
:
: Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL: :
Beginning stocks : 383 240 250 250
Production : 40,292 38,050 38,625 37,010
Imports : 143 160 175 290
Supply, total : 40,819 38,450 39,050 37,550
Domestic : 33,070 32,050 32,700 32,000
Exports : 7,508 6,150 6,100 5,300
Use, total : 40,579 38,200 38,800 37,300
Ending stocks : 240 250 250 250
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.73 180.00 155.00- 170.00-
: 180.00 200.00
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices:
soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil,
simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48
percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through June, coupled
with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate a below-average residual.
WASDE-402-14
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
======================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=====================
: : Estimate : August September
======================================================================
: 1,000 short tons, raw value
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,281 1,602 1,691
Production 2/3/ : 7,907 8,386 8,885 8,812
Beet sugar : 3,915 4,397 4,659 4,651
Cane sugar 4/ : 3,992 3,989 4,226 4,161
Imports 2/ : 1,535 1,679 1,581 1,584
TRQ 5/ : 1,158 1,214 1,221 1,224
Other program 6/ : 296 440 325 325
Other 7/ : 81 25 35 35
Total supply : 11,622 11,346 12,068 12,087
:
Exports 2/8/ : 137 140 150 150
Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,083 9,715 10,060 9,925
Domestic food use : 9,897 9,500 9,850 9,700
Other 9/ : 186 215 210 225
Miscellaneous 10/ : 121 -200 0 0
Use, total : 10,341 9,655 10,210 10,075
Ending stocks 2/ : 1,281 1,691 1,858 2,012
:
Stocks to use ratio : 12.4 17.5 18.2 20.0
======================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical
data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S.
Customs Service. 3/ Production for 2002/03 and 2003/04 are based on
processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Other
projections are based on analyses by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2002/03
(projected 2003/04): FL 2,127 (2,135); HI 287 (286); LA 1,386 (1,558);
TX 189 (182); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate
quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills
assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For
2002/03, available TRQs assume shortfall of 75,000 tons; for 2003/04,
includes shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-
export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and
other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products
for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Residual
statistical discrepancies.
METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS
1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216
Rice : = cwt * .045359
Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401
Barley : = bushels * .021772
Oats : = bushels * .014515
Sugar : = short tons * .907185
Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WASDE-402-15
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :===============================
: : Est. : August September
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 15.77 13.96 13.63 13.63
Harvested : 13.83 12.43 12.30 12.19
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 705 665 667 667
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 6.00 7.45 5.50 5.40
Production : 20.30 17.21 17.10 16.94
Imports : 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.05
Supply, total : 26.32 24.72 22.65 22.39
Domestic use : 7.70 7.27 6.60 6.60
Exports : 11.00 11.90 11.80 12.00
Use, total : 18.70 19.17 18.40 18.60
Unaccounted 3/ : 0.18 0.16 -0.05 -0.01
Ending stocks : 7.45 5.40 4.30 3.80
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 29.8 42.9 5/ 5/
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
5/ Weighted average for August 2002-July 2003. USDA is prohibited by law from
publishing cotton price projections.
===============================================================================
Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of
Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending
stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the
quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing
year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2003/04 is 20.6
percent.
WASDE-402-16
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2001/02
:
World 3/ : 200.65 581.07 108.45 107.83 584.36 108.08 197.36
United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.17 32.66 26.23 21.15
Total foreign : 176.81 527.81 105.52 102.66 551.70 81.85 176.21
Major exporters 4/ : 24.53 152.12 10.25 52.98 108.98 54.25 23.67
Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.89 10.08 1.14
Australia : 4.54 24.85 0.08 2.70 5.43 16.41 7.63
Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 3.69 7.57 16.27 6.73
EU-15 : 9.75 91.20 9.82 46.50 91.10 11.49 8.18
Major importers 5/ : 108.61 141.32 48.95 12.45 203.20 3.65 92.03
Brazil : 0.65 3.25 7.01 0.40 10.00 0.01 0.90
China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59
N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.48 0.31 29.37 0.24 5.66
Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.24 0.40 19.80 0.50 2.59
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.83 1.38 8.67 0.34 1.61
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.84 34.90 1.69 10.94 30.54 4.15 6.73
India : 21.50 69.68 0.03 0.50 64.20 3.09 23.93
FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.33 3.56 20.46 69.31 13.81 17.14
Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.63 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.48
Kazakhstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20
Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.09 3.00 13.44 5.49 2.96
:
: 2002/03 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 197.36 564.11 105.47 112.98 597.29 104.27 164.19
United States : 21.15 43.99 2.11 3.40 30.62 23.25 13.38
Total foreign : 176.21 520.12 103.36 109.59 566.67 81.02 150.81
Major exporters 4/ : 23.67 140.70 12.86 59.09 115.95 39.20 22.08
Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.18 6.00 2.27
Australia : 7.63 9.39 0.50 4.03 6.75 8.50 2.27
Canada : 6.73 15.69 0.35 3.70 7.92 9.20 5.65
EU-15 : 8.18 103.32 12.00 51.28 96.10 15.50 11.90
Major importers 5/ : 92.03 138.63 45.53 10.10 198.26 4.20 73.72
Brazil : 0.90 2.94 6.50 0.30 9.75 0.01 0.58
China : 76.59 90.29 0.43 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.39
N. Africa 6/ : 5.66 11.17 18.10 0.30 29.33 0.21 5.40
Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.25 0.40 18.60 0.90 1.57
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 0.00 9.15 1.70 9.00 0.36 1.40
Selected other :
East. Europe : 6.73 30.47 2.02 9.99 29.58 4.66 4.98
India : 23.93 71.81 0.03 0.60 73.30 4.50 17.96
FSU-12 8/ : 17.14 97.39 3.53 24.06 74.20 25.26 18.60
Russia : 6.48 50.55 0.50 16.00 39.30 13.00 5.23
Kazakhstan : 5.20 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 5.50 6.66
Ukraine : 2.96 20.55 0.75 4.00 14.50 6.60 3.16
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-402-17
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2003/04 (Projected)
World 3/ :
August : 164.07 549.35 94.79 100.90 582.87 97.91 130.55
September : 164.19 547.04 93.86 99.75 582.22 97.41 129.01
United States :
August : 13.38 62.37 2.45 4.76 32.11 28.58 17.51
September : 13.38 62.37 2.18 4.76 31.84 28.58 17.51
Total foreign :
August : 150.69 486.98 92.34 96.14 550.76 69.34 113.04
September : 150.81 484.67 91.69 94.99 550.38 68.84 111.50
Major exporters 4/ :
August : 22.20 154.00 4.27 55.38 112.48 51.00 16.99
September : 22.08 151.00 4.17 54.58 111.68 49.50 16.07
Argentina Aug : 2.27 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 9.50 2.00
Sep : 2.27 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 8.50 2.00
Australia Aug : 2.27 23.00 0.01 3.50 6.20 16.50 2.58
Sep : 2.27 24.00 0.01 3.50 6.20 17.50 2.58
Canada Aug : 5.77 22.00 0.25 3.80 8.00 14.50 5.52
Sep : 5.65 21.00 0.15 3.50 7.70 14.00 5.10
EU-15 Aug : 11.90 94.50 4.00 48.00 93.00 10.50 6.90
Sep : 11.90 92.50 4.00 47.50 92.50 9.50 6.40
Major importers 5/ :
August : 73.55 140.24 40.65 9.50 196.71 2.50 55.24
September : 73.72 140.24 39.65 9.50 196.51 3.00 54.10
Brazil Aug : 0.58 4.30 6.00 0.35 9.95 0.01 0.93
Sep : 0.58 4.30 6.00 0.35 9.95 0.01 0.93
China Aug : 60.46 87.00 1.00 6.00 104.50 0.80 43.16
Sep : 60.39 87.00 0.50 6.00 104.50 1.30 42.09
N. Africa 6/ Aug : 5.05 15.98 12.90 0.30 29.08 0.21 4.64
Sep : 5.40 15.98 12.90 0.30 29.18 0.21 4.89
Pakistan Aug : 1.57 18.20 0.50 0.40 18.75 0.20 1.32
Sep : 1.57 18.20 0.50 0.40 18.75 0.20 1.32
SE Asia 7/ Aug : 1.40 0.00 9.05 1.55 8.95 0.33 1.17
Sep : 1.40 0.00 9.05 1.55 8.95 0.33 1.17
Selected other :
East. Europe Aug : 5.48 22.20 4.10 8.67 27.68 1.33 2.77
Sep : 4.98 21.95 4.28 8.37 27.33 1.33 2.55
India Aug : 17.96 67.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 2.00 14.01
Sep : 17.96 67.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 2.00 14.01
FSU-12 8/ Aug : 18.14 60.98 6.24 17.38 65.12 9.31 10.93
Sep : 18.60 62.38 6.44 17.33 65.93 9.81 11.68
Russia Aug : 5.23 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 1.23
Sep : 5.23 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 1.23
Kazakhstan Aug : 6.66 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 5.50 6.58
Sep : 6.66 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 6.00 6.08
Ukraine Aug : 3.16 5.00 2.20 0.73 9.73 0.20 0.44
Sep : 3.16 5.00 2.50 0.73 10.03 0.20 0.44
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-402-18
World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2001/02
:
World 3/ : 188.08 892.33 101.39
